Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint

Discussion of Determinants of Agricultural and Mineral Commodity Prices

It is a pleasure to be invited to discuss this rich paper by Jeffrey Frankel and Andrew Rose. After the events of the past few years, with a range of commodity prices exhibiting great volatility, it is not hard to motivate Frankel and Rose’s choice of topic, seen from either a longor medium-term perspective. The authors use annual data, mainly in a panel context, to examine the relationship bet...

Linkages among agricultural commodity futures prices: evidence from Tokyo

Malliaris and Urrutia (1996) use cointegration to analyse the prices of agricultural commodity futures contracts traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). They ® nd a long-run relationship among US grown corn, wheat, oat, soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil futures prices and assert that this empirical ® nding is consistent with two alternative hypotheses. The ® rst is that common economic...

Mean and Variance Dynamics between Agricultural Commodity Prices and Crude Oil Prices

Determinants of Commodity Prices

Financial returns, although seemingly unpredictable, have been successfully modelled using market and macro-economic factors. The effect of these factors, however, may vary with time and only be statistically significant for specific periods. This paper utilises factors that have been found to capture financial market returns and applies them to the modelling of a broad set of commodities. A ch...

Commodity Prices and Growth∗

In this paper we propose an endogenous growth model of commodity-rich economies in which: (i) long-run (steady-state) growth is endogenous and yet independent of commodity prices; (ii) commodity prices affect short-run growth through transitional dynamics; and (iii) the status of net commodity importer/exporter is endogenous. We argue that these predictions are consistent with historical eviden...